#Oscar2018: Previsões de Setembro, 2017

THE SHAPE OF WATER
Atualizado em 10.09.17 (Clique nas categorias para acessar os dossiês)


DUNKIRK
Warner Bros.
70,0%
DARKEST HOUR
Focus Features
67,0%
THE POST
The Weinstein Company
60,0%
THE SHAPE OF WATER
Fox Searchlight Pictures
60,0%
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
Sony Pictures Classics
53,0%
MUDBOUND
Netflix
42,0%
CORRA!
Universal Pictures
39,0%
PHANTOM THREAD
Focus Features
25,0%
DOWNSIZING
Paramount Pictures
24,4%
BATTLE OF THE SEXES
Fox Searchlight
21,2%



Christopher Nolan
DUNKIRK
45,0%
Guillermo del Toro
THE SHAPE OF WATER
39,0%
Joe Wright
DARKEST HOUR
38,0%
Steven Spielberg
THE POST
37,0%
Luca Guadagnino
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
25,0%



Gary Oldman
DARKEST HOUR
50,0%
Daniel Day-Lewis
PHANTOM THREAD
40,0%
Hugh Jackman
O REI DO SHOW
25,0%
Denzel Washington
ROMAN ISRAEL, ESQ
24,1%
Tom Hanks
THE POST
23,0%



Kate Winslet
WONDER WHEEL
41,0%
Sally Hawkins
THE SHAPE OF WATER
39,0%
Meryl Streep
THE POST
34,0%
Annette Bening
FILM STARS DON’T DIE IN LIVERPOOL
32,0%
Frances McDormand
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
31,0%



Willem Dafoe
THE FLORIDA PROJECT
49,0%
Michael Stuhlbarg
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
37,0%
Jason Mitchell
MUDBOUND
33,0%
Michael Shannon
THE CURRENT WAR
32,0%
Sam Rockwell
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
29,0%



Kristin Scott Thomas
DARKEST HOUR
39,0%
Melissa Leo
NOVITIATE
39,0%
Holly Hunter
THE BIG SICK
32,0%
Octavia Spencer
THE SHAPE OF WATER
28,0%
Hong Chau 
DOWNSIZING
27,0%



DARKEST HOUR
Anthony McCarten
35,8%
CORRA!
Jordan Peele
34,0%
THE SHAPE OF WATER
Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor
33,0%
THE POST
Liz Hannah & Josh Singer
27,0%
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Martin McDonagh
26,0%



CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
James Ivory 
47,0%
MUDBOUND
Dee Rees & Virgil Williams 
45,0%
LAST FLAG FLYING
Richard Linklater
30,0%
WONDERSTRUCK
Brian Selznick
30,0%
VICTORIA AND ABDUL
Shrabani Basu & Lee Hall
18,0%



BLADE RUNNER 2049
Dennis Gassner
37,0%
THE SHAPE OF WATER
Paul D. Austerberry
32,0%
DARKEST HOUR
Sarah Greenwood & K.Spencer
30,0%
DUNKIRK
Nathan Crowley & Gary Fettis
26,0%
O REI DO SHOW
Nathan Crowley
22,8%



BLADE RUNNER 2049
Roger Deakins
39,0%
DUNKIRK
Hoyt Van Hoytema
37,0%
DARKEST HOUR
Bruno Delbonnel
30,0%
THE SHAPE OF WATER
Dan Laustsen
25,0%
WONDERSTRUCK
Edward Lachman
18,0%



PHANTOM THREAD
Mark Bridges
32,0%
WONDERSTRUCK
Sandy Powell
29,0%
DARKEST HOUR
Jacqueline Durran
27,0%
A BELA E A FERA
Jacqueline Durran
25,0%
VICTORIA AND ABDUL
Consolata Boyle
24,0%



DUNKIRK
Lee Smith
40,0%
THE POST
Michael Kahn
35,0%
BLADE RUNNER 2049
Joe Walker
22,0%
DARKEST HOUR
Valerio Bonelli
21,0%
CORRA!
Gregory Plotkin
20,1%



DARKEST HOUR
30,0%
LOGAN
26,0%
THE SHAPE OF WATER
22,0%



DUNKIRK
Hans Zimmer
36,0%
THE SHAPE OF WATER
Alexandre Desplat 
36,0%
STAR WARS VIII
John Williams
27,0%
DARKEST HOUR
Dario Marianelli
26,0%
THE POST
John Williams
26,0%



DUNKIRK
40,0%
BLADE RUNNER 2049
33,0%
STAR WARS VIII
31,0%
O REI DO SHOW
24,0%
THE SHAPE OF WATER
22,0%



DUNKIRK
39,0%
BLADE RUNNER 2049
35,0%
STAR WARS VIII
31,0%
DETROIT
19,0%
EM RITMO DE FUGA
17,0%



BLADE RUNNER 2049
38,0%
PLANETA DOS MACACOS: A GUERRA
36,0%
STAR WARS VIII
34,0%
GUARDIÕES DA GALAXIA VOL.2
25,0%
DUNKIRK
23,0%



***
COCO
10,0%
***
O REI DO SHOW
9,0%
***
FILM STARS DON’T DIE IN LIVERPOOL
8,0%
***
THE STAR
7,0%
Evermore
A BELA E A FERA
6,0%



COCO
Lee Unkrich & Adrian Molina
50,0%
THE BREADWINNER
Nora Twomey
44,0%
LEGO BATMAN: O FILME
Chris McKay
30,0%
FERDINAND
Carlos Saldanha
29,0%
LOVING VINCENT
Dorota Kobiela & Hugh Welchman
23,0%



THE SQUARE
Ruben Östlund  – Suécia
42,3%
120 BATTEMENTS PAR MINUTE
Robin Campillo – França
28,2%
UMA MULHER FANTÁSTICA
Sebastián Lelio – Chile
27,0%
LOVELESS
Andrey Zyvagintsev – Rússia
26,4%
DE CORPO E ALMA
Ildiko Enyedi – Hungria
25,4%



VISAGES, VILLAGES
Agnès Varda
28,1%
CITY OF GHOSTS
Matt Heineman
25,6%
HELL ON EARTH
Sebastian Junger & Nick Quested
23,6%
BOBBI JENE
Elvira Lind
21,4%
LONG STRANGE TRIP
Amir Bar-Lev
18,2%


MELHOR CURTA-METRAGEM DE ANIMAÇÃO


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0,0%
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0,0%
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***
0,0%
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***
0,0%
***
***
0,0%


MELHOR CURTA-METRAGEM


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***
0,0%
***
***
0,0%
***
***
0,0%
***
***
0,0%
***
***
0,0%


MELHOR DOCUMENTÁRIO EM CURTA-METRAGEM


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0,0%
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0,0%
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0,0%
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0,0%
***
***
0,0%



(*) Para determinar esse prognóstico, o SPOILER mede a probabilidade de cada filme ser indicado, através de uma amostragem estatística de vários oscarbuzzers, critica, premiações precedentes e festivais internacionais de como (e quanto) eles acertam (e acertaram) em seus prognósticos anteriores para o Oscar, agregado com alguns fatores de correção tais como bilheteria, pedigree de produção, índice comercial e, no caso dos filmes estrangeiros, alcance geográfico e cultural, medido através da distribuição de cada filme em cada país.

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